For the five-year period starting from 2024, we expect our long-term revenue growth to approach a 20% CAGR in US dollar term, fueled by all four of our growth platforms, which are smartphone, HPC, IoT and automotive.
Rule number one: never lose money. Rule number two: Never forget rule number one.
But apologies to state the obvious, but investors aren't, you know, that excited or are showing that excitement. The stock is a major under-performer on a year-to-date date. It's down again on an after-hours basis today. And I would point to it's the lack of acceleration that we're seeing in the numbers, right? Digital Media net new ARR this quarter grew just -- or in Creative Cloud grew 2%.
You're guiding to decelerating growth into the forward year despite all this innovation. And I think the question that it brings up in investors' mind is, is there some leak in the bucket, right? All this innovation, new monetization avenues, pricing going up, but the growth is going in the wrong direction. Like is there a part of the equation that's not working? Is there share losses? Is there something that we're not seeing that is taking away that momentum in the numbers that's not -- sort of not in the acceleration in the numbers, if you will?
And as long as our growth outlook remains strong, we will continue to invest. Now as C.C. said, next year looks to be a healthy year. So, it is very likely that our capex next year will be higher than this year.
現時只能等待Q4業績時，管理層正式公佈明年capex時才能確認。
all my customers want to put their AI functionality into the edge devices and so the die size will be increased, OK? How much? I mean, it's different from my customer to customer's product.But basically, probably 5% to 10% die size increase will be a general rule
But, there’s a huge problem with this logic—there is nothing that says that these metrics have to return to their long-term averages. In fact, I believe the opposite. Valuation multiples are likely to stay above their historical norms for the foreseeable future. Why?
根據指引，11b的收入預期相當於按年增長64%營業利潤4.83億，或44%，有望創歷史新高。而管理層在電話會議中表示下半年收入將會substantially higher than H1.粗略估算一下全年的業績，收入7.19＋11＋11＋11 ＝40.19b假設營業利潤維持於44%，營業利潤將有17b.相當於按年增長4倍，比FY22增長70%！
And a longer-term question, Lisa. If I look at the success that AMD has enjoyed, its many factors, but a few of them included your early adoption of chiplets and the strong partnerships you have had with TSMC. But now we are seeing your x86 competitor Intel also adopt chiplet or tile technology as they call it.
And then, I think recently the manufacturing update they gave, they said, they are two years ahead in terms of incorporating gate all-around and backside our delivery. So, let's assume they are right and they have either caught up to TSMC or maybe they are ahead. What impact does that have on AMD in kind of the medium to longer term?
而Lisa Su答：
So, I think the longer-term question that you ask is I think we're expecting that the competition is going to be on a similar process technology and even in that case, I think we feel like we have a very strong roadmap going forward and will continue to drive both the CPU and the GPU roadmap very aggressively.
for the full year of 2024, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to increase by more than 10% year over year, while foundry industry growth is forecasted to be approximately 20%. For TSMC, supported by our technology leadership and broader customer base, we are confident to outperform the foundry industry growth. We expect our business to grow quarter over quarter throughout 2024, and our full year revenue expect to increase by low to mid 20% in U.S. dollar terms.
Charlie, you name my customer's name. That's my customer yet my competitor. Let me repeat, the last time when I comment on their technology, the comment stays the same, so that -- their newest technology will be very similar or equivalent to TSMC's N3P. We further checked again, we saw all the specs of the possible published in the technology, transistor technology, and everything may come and stay the same, with a big advantage in the technology maturity because of -- in 2025, when they say that their newest technology will be going on production, for TSMC, that will be the third year with a very high volume production in the fabs.
多數市場在大多數時候是走揚的 --- 《持續買進》
