價值求知
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Thursday, June 16, 2022
聯儲局加息
Thursday, May 5, 2022
談談AMD FY22 Q1的業績
Monday, April 25, 2022
台積電 --- 叫好不叫座的Q1業績
Monday, April 11, 2022
《他是賭神更是股神》讀後感
Sunday, March 6, 2022
大跌市下的操作--心靈雞湯系列?
We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten
Friday, February 4, 2022
Buy and Hold?從6000億走到3萬億之路
Friday, January 14, 2022
台積電FY2021全年業績--Megatrend下的領頭羊
至於TSM, 2022年大概率會經歷一場去庫存, 但台積電作為龍頭影響應該會較細.而半導體的需求仍在上升, 台積電這一兩年的擴充行為應該會在未來幾年有回報.
整理一下說法會的重點:
- 2022年全年營收會有25-29%增長
- 上修了長期(2021 - 2025)收入增長指引由10~15% -> 15~20%
- 上修了長期毛利率指引,由50% -> 53%
- 2022年資本支出約400-440億美金.(FY2021: 300億美金)
- 3nm製程將如期在2022下半年開始量產,一年後N3E(3nm的加強版)將會量產
- 推出N4P, N4X製程
- 產能在2022年維持緊張
For the full year of 2022, we forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory, to grow approximately 9% while foundry industry growth is forecast to be close to 20%. For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow between mid- to high 20s percent in 2022 in U.S. dollar term.
Sunday, January 2, 2022
2021年結與2022展望
AAPL
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
談談Adobe FY2021全年業績
首先是收入增長只有13.4%, 其次是eps的增長只有2%(GAAP)或9.8%(non-GAAP)
For operating expenses, we continue to save on travel and facilities in fiscal year 2021. While many of our employees continue to work from home, we expect these expenses to ramp throughout FY 2022
...
Yes, so as I think we look into 2022, we in the prepared comments talked about as the world begins to open up, we're going to get on airplanes, we're going to spend time with customers, you'll see some of the facilities costs come back, this is about growing and scaling our business and engaging with customers and solving their highest value problems. So you will see some of those costs come back. And that's reflected in our guide.
Lastly, fiscal year 2021 was a 53-week fiscal year with an extra week in Q1. That week added approximately to $267 million of revenue and $25 million of net new digital media ARR the math around the return to a 52-week fiscal year is expected to be a two-point headwind on our full-year, FY'22 growth rates and a seven-point headwind in Q1.
絕對是其中一支 secular growth的股票, 至於估值方面.
Friday, December 3, 2021
談談完美醫療
美中不足的是現金流.
現金流量表是用以紀錄一段時間內公司實際的現金流入/現出,
Wednesday, November 3, 2021
談談蘋果AAPL FY2021的業績
source:https://www.statista.com/statistics/263441/global-smartphone-shipments-forecast/
另外,疫情令居家辦公的需求激升,帶動了Mac和iPad的銷量, 亦是一大利好因素.
I think, that 5G has provided a once in a decade kind of upgrade potential and it's a multi-year kind of thing. It's not a one-year-and-done. And I think that we are motivated there, the carriers are motivated there. We have mutual interests and the customer benefits hugely from getting a new 5G phone that has 5G and a number of other features in it, too.
Saturday, August 28, 2021
持股短評
Looking at our overall data center business, revenue nearly doubled year-over-year and increased sequentially from a high-teens percentage of overall revenue in the first quarter to greater than 20% in the second quarter. We expect data center revenue to continue growing faster than overall revenue based on the strength of our EPYC processors and instinct accelerators, and the significantly expanded engagements we have built with the leading OEMs and largest MDCs.
由上圖可見, 數據中心的增長由上季按年增長80%下修到今季按年35%增長,
Friday, July 16, 2021
談談台積電2021Q2的業績
Right. This is Wendell. Let me answer your question. First, if we look at shorter term, you talked about in the last 12 months. Foreign exchange does play a very big role in the gross margin between last year and this year, year-to-date.
Last year, the dollar against NT rate was $29.43 in average. This year, year-to-date, is 28% -- somewhere around 28%. That creates a 2 percentage point difference in gross margin, i.e., if the gross margin -- I mean, if foreign exchange rate stays where it was last year, we would be having a 52% gross margin in the second quarter already. And also, I talked about the dilution from the N5 this year, another 2 to 3 points. So with all these negatives, we still can make 50% in second quarter and the third quarter. That's the short term.
Brett Simpson
I had a question on gross margins. I guess you've talked about 50% gross margin as a long-term target for quite some time now. And I understand there's been FX headwinds and the 5-nanometer ramp as a headwind. If I look at your big fabless customers, they are delivering structurally much higher gross margins as a result of accessing your leading-edge capacity, particularly in the last 12 months when your gross margins are going down. And I'd just like to ask, given your position in the industry, do you really think 50% is an appropriate level of return. And doesn't your position warrant some structural margin expansion at the gross margin level?