台積電(TSM)2020年度業績短評

昨日14號台積電出了全年業績, 後悔沒在業績前加注,

畢竟過去一個月已升14%, 究竟業績好會否已反映在股價中?

然而, 業績出來後果然被打臉.

個人相信股價升是因為管理層預期

Now, I will talk about our 2021 outlook. For the full year of 2021, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory to grow about 8%, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 10%. For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow by mid-teens percentage in 2021 in US dollar term. 

With our technology leadership, we are well positioned to capture the growth from the favorable industry mega trend. We now expect our long-term revenue growth to be 10% to 15% CAGR from 2020 to 2025 in US dollar terms.

 這顯然比市場預期只有around10%增長為佳, 而long term growth亦有10-15%,

公司今年收入升25%, 盈利升50%, 每股盈利達US$3.39 / NT$19.97

盈利增長>收入增長是因為gross margin和operating margin都有改善.

gross margin由2019年46%上升至2020年53.1%, 主要是因為產能利用率提升.

今年的資本性開支CapEx約172億美元, 預期來年會大幅增加至250-280億美金以應付龐大的需求.

資本性開支會以折舊形式按年攤分至operating expense當中.

可能對下年的operating margin構成壓力.

但個人對台積電的管理層有信心, 資本性開支大增反映的是供不應求, 

以一間代工廠而言, 淨利潤率達38.7%, 甚至比上游的Nvdia今年25%的淨利潤率還高.

財務表現上無懈可擊.

而估值上已完全脫離了過往十多倍PE的區間, 達37倍.

我覺得大概等於幾年後的獲利再乘上一個25倍左右既forward PE然後折現.

預期是打得滿滿但現時的市場環境下, 要不下注在這些預期很好, 但估值很高,

要不就估值很低但前景又令人擔心, 實在是兩難.