談談Adobe FY2021全年業績

截至2021-12-03, Adobe全年收入15.79b, 同比增長23%

毛利13.92b, 毛利率88.2% (FY20: 86.6%), 毛利同比上升24.9%

營業利潤5.8b, 營業利潤率36.7% (FY20: 32.9%), 營業利潤同比上升36.9%

GAAP淨利潤4.8b, 淨利潤率30.5%, 同比下降8.3%

GAAP eps 10.02, 同比下降7.5%

若撇除2020財年的一次性稅務收益, 以non-GAAP淨利潤計算, 

2021財年non-GAAP淨利潤6b, 同比上升22.4%

non-GAAP eps 12.48, 同比上升23.6%

盈利的增長跟得上收入的增長, 毛利率/營業利潤率擴張反映了經營效率的收善.

然而這樣的業績發佈後股價卻見光死. 

由最高688一直跌至550左右才喘定, 足足跌了兩成.

主要原因大概是因為管理層給出令人失望的FY22年展望.

首先是收入增長只有13.4%, 其次是eps的增長只有2%(GAAP)或9.8%(non-GAAP)

反映了經營效率變差. 

對此, 管理層在Earning Call給出的解釋是

For operating expenses, we continue to save on travel and facilities in fiscal year 2021. While many of our employees continue to work from home, we expect these expenses to ramp throughout FY 2022

... 

Yes, so as I think we look into 2022, we in the prepared comments talked about as the world begins to open up, we're going to get on airplanes, we're going to spend time with customers, you'll see some of the facilities costs come back, this is about growing and scaling our business and engaging with customers and solving their highest value problems. So you will see some of those costs come back. And that's reflected in our guide.

受惠於疫情減少了公司的航運支出, 今年的營業利潤率大幅改善, 

而FY22大概是back to normal的一年. 

至於收入方面, 管理層的說法是

Lastly, fiscal year 2021 was a 53-week fiscal year with an extra week in Q1. That week added approximately to $267 million of revenue and $25 million of net new digital media ARR the math around the return to a 52-week fiscal year is expected to be a two-point headwind on our full-year, FY'22 growth rates and a seven-point headwind in Q1.

因為FY21額外的一個星期,  所以指引會有2%的下修.

若撇除這額外的一個星期, 指引會變成第二個col的17-19%.

對於這份業績, 個人認為其實不差.

要知道在2021剛開始時, 管理層對於2021財年的收入指引也只有18%增長

但最後卻增長23%.

這大概只是反映了管理層的保守傾向.

而少了一個星期和營運開支的上升大概不可避免, 但這對公司的本質沒什麼影響.

看看Adobe近幾年的收入增長:

絕對是其中一支 secular growth的股票, 至於估值方面.

參考過去幾年公司大概在13-15倍市銷率之間交易, 

取14倍PS乘上17.9b, 得出市值大概在2500億左右.

現價大概處於合理或稍稍偏高之間, 個人最後一次加注@467. 

現時繼續佛系持股, 畢竟優質的股票不常出現特價, 

要是因為Time the Market而錯失大牛股, 更是得不償失.