點評Nvidia FY26Q2業績

最近沒怎麼關注業績，也懶得出文。

但始終組合內很AI持股不少，股王出業績也一定要留意下。

只瀏覽了大數

FY26 Q2收入467億（Q1: 441億）

上半年收入已達908億。

管理層預期Q3收入540億（不計中國收入）。

全年下來，今年收入超過2000億應該沒問題。

而下半年毛利率預期有改善，

Q2 non-GAAP毛利率72.3%，預期Q3 73.5%,

Q4更進一步達到mid-70s.

因此下半年盈利應超過上半年，

個人預期全年賺non-GAAP eps約4.3.

以180股價計算，forword PE約42. 

電話會議上有分析員問及AI資本開支的情況，

Jensen, I wanted to ask you about your $3 trillion to $4 trillion in data center infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. Previously, you talked about something in the $1 billion trillion range, which I believe was just for compute by 2028. If you take past comments, $3 trillion to $4 trillion would imply maybe $2 billion trillion plus in compute spend. And just wanted to know if that was right and that's what you're seeing by the end of the decade. And wondering what you think your share will be of that. Your share right now of total

CEO黃仁勳回答： 

Thanks. As you know, the CapEx of just the top 4 hyperscalers has doubled in 2 years. As the AI revolution went into full steam, as the AI race is now on, the CapEx spend has doubled to $600 billion per year. There's 5 years between now and the end of the decade, and $600 billion only represents the top 4 hyperscalers. We still have the rest of the enterprise companies building on-prem. You have cloud service providers building around the world. United States represents about 60% of the world's compute. And over time, you would think that artificial intelligence would reflect GDP scale and growth and so -- and would be, of course, accelerating GDP growth.

And so our contribution to that is a large part of the AI infrastructure. Out of a gigawatt AI factory, which can go anywhere from $50 billion to plus or minus 10%, let's say, $50 billion to $60 billion, we represent about $35 billion plus or minus of that and $35 billion out of $50 billion per gigawatt data center. 

首先， 2028 AI相關的資本開支是上一季度由黃仁勳提出，

不過一個季度，又再劃大個餅，變成2030年達3至4萬億。

當然，當中一部分開支包括數據中心建設、ASIC晶片等其他開支。

不是只有GPU。

而個人統計所得：今年各科技巨頭的資本資出達3300億：

META: 65b

AMZN: 100b

MSFT:  80b

GOOG: 85b

合共3300億 (對比2024增超過40%）

NVDA上半年收入908億，908/(3300/2) ＝ 55%

相當於55%支出進了Nvidia口袋。

管理層指一間1GW的數據中心，成本約500-600億，

當中NVDA就佔了350億，也大概是58%.

至於將來，就視乎閣下對AI前景的看法。

若以黃仁勳的說法2030市場達三萬億，

而又假設Nvidia仍維持現時的市佔率，

那麼屆時的收入將過萬億？

個人持保留態度。