談談台積電2021Q2的業績

截至2021年6月, 台積電第二季收入13.29億美金, 

同比上升19.8%, 符合市場預期.

毛利率50%, 同比下降2.95%. 

營業淨利率39.1%, 同比下降3%.

淨利潤48億美金, 同比上升11.24%, 

淨利率36.14%, 同比下降2.77%

每股ADR賺0.93美金, 半年賺1.89美金.

因為台積電每月都會公佈營收數據, 所以收入上升被市場充分預期.

但毛利率的下降似乎嚇了市場一跳, 即使公司收入每年上升幾十個巴仙, 

若然毛利率持續下跌, 會導致利潤的增長趕不上收入增長.

那麼現價30倍PE的台積電是否值得這麼高的估值就有必要重新檢視.

根據分析員電話會議:

Right. This is Wendell. Let me answer your question. First, if we look at shorter term, you talked about in the last 12 months. Foreign exchange does play a very big role in the gross margin between last year and this year, year-to-date.

Last year, the dollar against NT rate was $29.43 in average. This year, year-to-date, is 28% -- somewhere around 28%. That creates a 2 percentage point difference in gross margin, i.e., if the gross margin -- I mean, if foreign exchange rate stays where it was last year, we would be having a 52% gross margin in the second quarter already. And also, I talked about the dilution from the N5 this year, another 2 to 3 points. So with all these negatives, we still can make 50% in second quarter and the third quarter. That's the short term.

撇除匯率影響, Q2的毛利率為52%, 只比去年下降大約1%.

而今年是5nm量產的一年, 一般新製程要7-8個季度去提升margin到企業平均值.

毛利率會有所影響應是預期之內.

而事實上, 50%的毛利率是公司預期之內.

至於第三季, 公司預期毛利率將會與今季持平, 而收入會上升至146 - 149億美金.

而下半年是業務旺季, Q4通常又比Q3好.

因為收入上升, 下半年毛利率通常又好於上半年.

取個中位數, 那麼2021年收入應有 12.92+13.29+14.75+14.75 = 55.71b

收入增長鐵定>20%, 而假設毛利率大致跟上半年一樣, 那麼每股ADR eps應該達4美元.

以現價116算, forward PE 29,  不算便宜了很多.

我在109.9加了注, 現在就繼續按兵不動.

另外在分析員電話會議中有人問到

Brett Simpson

I had a question on gross margins. I guess you've talked about 50% gross margin as a long-term target for quite some time now. And I understand there's been FX headwinds and the 5-nanometer ramp as a headwind. If I look at your big fabless customers, they are delivering structurally much higher gross margins as a result of accessing your leading-edge capacity, particularly in the last 12 months when your gross margins are going down. And I'd just like to ask, given your position in the industry, do you really think 50% is an appropriate level of return. And doesn't your position warrant some structural margin expansion at the gross margin level?

我想那客顧客應該是Nvdia吧, 因為Apple跟AMD的毛利率都比台積電低.

但若然往後computation power的提升主要來自製程的升級, 

那麼台積電應該有更高的議價能力吧.

現時台積電的策略似乎是以長期的合作關係為優先考慮, 沒有短期內賺盡的打算.

無論如何,我對台積電仍然充滿信心.