2019第一擊---買入AAPL

就在2019/1/2, AAPL下調2019 Q1的盈利預測.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/01/letter-from-tim-cook-to-apple-investors/

• Revenue of approximately $84 billion
• Gross margin of approximately 38 percent
• Operating expenses of approximately $8.7 billion
• Other income/(expense) of approximately $550 million
• Tax rate of approximately 16.5 percent before discrete items

2018Q1 revenue是88.3 billion, 換言之QtoQ下跌了4.87%.
另外, 信內提到除iPhone以外其他division合共有接近19%增長,
換言之iPhone QtoQ sales下跌約15%.

在Tim Cook的信中將原因歸究於中國的經濟下滑.

China’s economy began to slow in the second half of 2018. The government-reported GDP growth during the September quarter was the second lowest in the last 25 years. We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States. As the climate of mounting uncertainty weighed on financial markets, the effects appeared to reach consumers as well, with traffic to our retail stores and our channel partners in China declining as the quarter progressed. And market data has shown that the contraction in Greater China’s smartphone market has been particularly sharp.

若然是中國經濟的影響, 那麼看看即將推出的華為業績應該可略知一二.

而事實上, 一眾內地年輕的手機品牌近年在全球的市佔率亦有所提升

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-vendors-since-4th-quarter-2009/
個人認為這些品牌比蘋果更了解中國大陸的消費者, 而且性價比亦更高.
但另一方面, 要這些品牌打出國外, 搶佔蘋果的市場份額, 卻同樣不容易.
至少在數據上, 蘋果這幾年的市佔率一直維持在12-20%之間.

作為投資者, 我認為蘋果以下的優勢仍在:
1: 優良的銷售服務
2: 流暢的作業系統(雖然Android的確在急追上來, 但Android對於硬件沒有掌控, 我認為是死穴)
3: ecosystem.

所以我認為AAPL長期的護城河沒有明顯的萎縮, 這次更多是定價過高的問題而非iPhone已不再吸引. 若然iPhone跟華為賣同樣的價錢, 你會選擇誰? 而且你還可能有iPad, MacBook, airPod....

PS: 加注AAPL@147.84